Projecting how a player will perform at the Major League level from NPB Japanese Baseball is a sophisticated science. To project, one must take into consideration the competition the players has faced and the competition he will face. One also must factor in variables such as age, injury history, position, role and much more. On top of these factors, one must use human judgment and think if the said player is a good fit for Major League Baseball or not.
With this in mind, I have projected Koji Uehara and his first 2009 Major League season with the Baltimore Orioles. This projection is based on the following variable factors using a mathematic algorithm, and topped off by my personal judgment. Note the 2008 MLB averages were: ERA: 4.32, H/9: 9.90, BB/9: 3.35, K/9: 6.73, WHIP: 1.37. H/9 is hits per nine innings, BB/9 is bases on balls per nine innings, K/9 is strikeouts per nine innings, WHIP is how many men the pitcher puts on base in a typical inning.
variables:
age between 30-33
quite a lot of injury history
Central League to American League East
starter (average over 150 innings pitched)
Koji Uehara Orioles 2009 projection
G W L IP H BB K ERA H/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP
28 6 10 162.5 190 58 120 4.45 8.63 1.58 6.80 1.53
(MLB averages) 4.32 9.90 3.35 6.73 1.37
Major League Projections, Koji Uehara